(G.N.S) Dt. 06
GVA rate for agriculture is expected to slow sharply to 2.1%, says statistics office.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Friday forecast that GDP growth in the current financial year ending March 31 will slow to a four-year low of 6.5%, from the provisional 7.1% pace seen in 2016-17, dragged down by deceleration in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
Gross Value Added (GVA) was also projected to expand by 6.1% in 2017-18, slowing from 6.6% in the preceding fiscal year, according to the first advance estimates of national income for 2017-18, released by the CSO.
Within this, the GVA growth rate for ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ is expected to slow sharply to 2.1%, compared with the previous year’s 4.9% pace. Manufacturing sector growth has been forecast at 4.6% in 2017-18, compared with the 7.9% expansion provisionally estimated for 2016-17. “In agriculture, what we are seeing is a base effect because last year saw a very high growth rate because it followed two years of drought,” Statistics and Programme Implementation Secretary and Chief Statistician of India TCA Anant said at a press conference in the national capital. “In terms of production, the total production would probably be the second highest in a very long time. It is not unusual growth in agriculture in a good year.”
The CSO’s GVA full-year growth estimate of 6.1%, compares with a 6.7% pace that the Reserve Bank of India had forecast at its December policy meeting. The central bank had at the time flagged rising oil prices and “shortfalls in kharif production and rabi sowing” as posing downside risks to the outlook for GVA growth.
(G.N.S) Dt. 06